For risk of ruin shown over a hand period you can use the formula I gave in the comment below. Could you please provide a reference for the stated formula for finite n? I am eager to learn the fundamentals of this kind of computations.

### GULF COAST POKER

Really cool. Less Variance more winning? Well, yes, you can just add the rake to you win rate to see the difference. The variance is independent of your win rate though. Of course your EV will increase, but the size of the confidence intervals for example will stay the same.

Standard Deviation heavily depends on your play style. I just went through my database with a couple of million cash game hands to get some detailed numbers about the standard deviation of pokre players in the database.

### Stu Ungar - Wikipedia

Regular cash game, not fast thqt. I filtered for number of players and removed all players with less hroke hands. But I think we can get a decent approximation when we just remove all hands with an all-in and call before the river when calculating the standard deviation. At least this will show the maximum impact all in hands have on the standard deviation.

In my database I have 3. Only 29k of those 0. Those are the numbers I got:. Meaning : We can compare this with the numbers above for Games with 6 players. I cleared the cache just in case. It should work. Try hard reloading the page Ctrl-Shift-R and see if that helps. Generally because players tend to play worse during down swings. Lower win rates drastically increase the Likelihood of extended down swings.

The rake is already considered in the win rate. Your win rate should always be after the rake. Winnings are measured in big blinds. That means you have won big blinds over 10, hands. This is equal to 2. What youre looking for is the standard deviation for the mean.

For example the variance for a single fair coin flip is 0. If you want to know the variance of the sum of 10 coin flips you do 0. The same goes for poker hands. The variance for poker hands in **Went** 6max is, say, squared. To calculate the variance of the sum for 10 thousand hands you have to think how many groups of hands does have?

Everything is super misleading. This means that these tables are significantly underestimating by a factor of about 2 the amount of bankroll needed to only have a 5 percent chance of going broke. Fortunately, this problem mitigates as the probability of going broke is reduced. Thus the Bankroll Required to Assure a Win tables do contain solid estimates and produce a risk of ruin of approximately 1.

I wrote some of it. It in no way changes the fact that the calculations in that section are no way to compute the bankroll requirement for a desired risk of ruin. That number that worse as the risk of ruin is reduced. If we want a 0. The mitigating factor is that both of those numbers are relatively small.

Lots of folks may not care if their risk of ruin is 1. The 0. You chose that as a way to include essentially all of a population as is common in statistics. Except you are considering the wrong population. We want the population of all random walks that never go broke. Using the former population for bankroll requirements and risk of ruin is mathematical nonsense.

Before that it was well known to the **poker** community, having appeared in papers by George C. It was surely known in mathematics before that as the general expression is important in financial math, and it can also be obtained from the Weiner process. There is also an analytical short term ruin formula for risk of ruin in a finite number of hands.

The confidence intervals in his graph have nothing to do with risk of ruin. His graph is showing you a range of results assuming you can play through any drawdowns. IOW, if you lose your at some point, you can still keep playing, as if someone lent you additional funds. The positive portion of the graph includes the times you lost your bankroll and then recovered to finish positive.

The risk of ruin formula as correctly given by Pokerdope counts these instances as a failure. A risk of ruin formula is not and cannot be based on confidence intervals. Attempting to use confidence intervals to compute risk of ruin is a well known blunder. Here is a derivation of the risk of ruin formula Pokerdope gave which has been simplified to require nothing more than high school algebra:.

BTW, we developed a similar **broke** calculator on your site for **player** which requires a different approach to risk of ruin.

### Rick Salomon - Wikipedia

It runs in R which is a platform for statistical computing which free and very easy player install. Here is a link to the script. Thank you for answering my question. In your example of a 2. The risk of ruin and the necessary bankroll is calculated independently from the confidence interval. Using the example above with a win rate of 2.

Do you have sophisticated guesses for the STD of 6-max five-card Omaha? Maybe something like ? I noticed that the 20 random graphs in cg variance simulator almost always have one graph that is outside of the 2 std deviation line. Is this a bug? The range of outcomes is wider. Hello, anyone can explain what observed winrate is?

We have winrate and observed winrate, any differences? Am confused if the BB is big bet **that** big blind. I would assume it is big bet. The variance calc is complete non sense. It would be correct if online poker would **poker** with correct and real life daily math, but since it doesnt, any calculation is a fail.

If your ture winrate is 2. Hi Mitch, these is the complete overview of my calculations. Especially since, even though I am a small winner in my games, I am perpetually running below EV and my actual winnings should be much higher than they currently are. Thank you. Do you assume normal distribution? I always see people on the forums : say wen is as likely to run below EV or above EV but this says otherwise.

Help explaining this would be greatly appreciated. Probability of running at **went** tuat observed win rate Probability of running below observed win rate You see, those tables were simulated at the distance **broke** mil hands. So the smaller is your sample the less chance for you will broje to ruin. Could anybody explain me.

## Variance in numbers

Also HM2 has 2 different stats for std dev. One is bb per hands and is as in examples.

Another is just std dev. So the difference is like, eg, for midstack nlhe 65 vs 6. You may put in the description than you use std dev per hands. Updated: May 91 Comments By Primedope. Hit "Calculate"! Hands: 1. Enter the data Hop over to the Variance Calculator page and enter your winrate, standard deviation and the number of hands you want to simulate.

Once you have entered the data, hit Calculate and the let the Calculator do its magic.

### Poker Bankroll Management Tools & Techniques That Work in

This number will appear as a rather boring straight and black line in the graph. They basically **that,** how much variance you should expect to see. Variance wenr numbers Below the first chart the Variance Calculator compiles a neat list of additional information: EV : win rate entered above Standard deviation : standard deviation entered above Hands thay number of hands entered above Expected winnings : estimated winnings over the simulated amount of hands Standard deviation after X hands : This number shows by how much your actual results will differ from the expected results on average.

Meaning: 19 out 20 times your **poker** winnings will be within this interval. Probability of loss after X hands : probability that you will experience negative winnings wdnt losses over the amount of went. Probability of running at or above observed win rate … : If you entered an observed winratethis number will show you the probability **broke** you will experience a run at or above this winrate over the amount of hands.

Probability of running below observed win playerr … : Same as above — probability that you will experience a run below the observed winrate over dent amount of hands. However, ten minutes before play started, Ungar told Baxter he was tired and did not feel like playing. Ungar later said the real reason he chose not to play in the event was due to his drug abuse in the weeks prior to **player** tournament.

He noted that he felt showing up in his current condition would be more embarrassing than not showing up at all. He lived in and out of various Las Vegas hotels, rarely ;layer his room. Ungar was also spotted walking around various Las Vegas poker rooms begging for money. He often said the money was to get him back on the poker tables, but pokerr instead use it to purchase crackwhich he now had to use instead of cocaine because his nasal membranes were so damaged he could no longer snort the drug, while crack could be smoked through a pipe.

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Not long after, many brike, some Ungar's former friends, refused to poekr him or give him any money until he cleaned himself up. Ungar was also arrested for possession of crack cocaine during this time. In OctoberBob Stupak made an arrangement to stake Ungar to **that** tournaments over a period of time. On November 20,Ungar checked into room No.

On November 22, he was found in the room dead, lying on the floor, fully clothed and with the television off. An autopsy showed traces of drugs in Ungar's system, but not enough to have directly caused his death. The medical examiner concluded that wejt death hhat the result poker a heart condition brought on by years of drug abuse.

**Broke** took up a ghat at Ungar's funeral to raise funds to pay for the services. Ungar was noted for his ultra-aggressive playing style and well-timed bluffs. Mike Sexton said that Ungar's chips were constantly in motion, and he was described by a fellow professional poker player during the World Series of Poker as having a clairvoyant ability to see his opponents' hole cards.

Several **player** Ungar's financial backers have commented that he could have earned an immeasurable amount more over **went** career had he been more of a 'hustler', giving his opponents the false belief they could beat him and thus be willing to risk more money trying. However, Ungar wanted to beat his opponents as soundly as possible, and he often insulted those whose skills he felt were inferior to his own.

In his biography, Ungar also noted several opponents who offered to pay him to lose a gin match on **poker** in order to collect a large side bet. The opponent would have someone else place the bet, and upon winning they would split the large payoff with Ungar.

However, Ungar pker that pride in his own skill would not allow him to do this; apparently he could not **that** the idea of someone having a victory against him, even an illegitimate one. Ungar, who heldwent for a few seconds and said to Matloubi, "You have or so I'm gonna call you with **broke** and flipped over his high to win the pot and bust Matloubi, who in fact held offsuit.

Growing up with street smart wiseguys such as Romano often presented Ungar with some interesting situations later on in his adult life. Ungar was once at an airport attempting to fly out of the United States plater Europe for a poker tournament with several **player** pros. All of Ungar's friends had passports, but he did not.

Ungar did not even have a Social Security number until after his WSOP win and that was only because he was forced to obtain one in order to collect his winnings. Upon telling the airport customs agent he needed the passport immediately to leave the country, the agent replied that for a small fee, they could push the necessary forms through quicker for him.

Ungar misconstrued this as meaning the agent was requesting a bribe, something he was used to back in New York when with Romano. However the agent was actually referring to a small "expedite fee" that was common for all passport applicants. The agent was going to call the police and have Ungar arrested for attempting to bribe a public official before his fellow poker players stepped in and smoothed nroke out.

At one point Ungar was being staked by Las Vegas mob enforcer Anthony "The Ant" Spilotroand showed up at Spilotro's house after having been gone for two days he was supposed to check in to report his take every day with a gun in his waistband. Through a slit in the doorway, Spilotro's son Vincent witnessed his father beat Ungar brutally, not for losing money or not having reported, but for the disrespect of bringing a gun into his home.

Ungar's relationship with Spilotro was one that helped define Las Vegas of the s. Despite owning several expensive cars, Ungar rarely drove. He preferred to take a taxicab virtually anywhere he went, even from his home in Las Vegas to the thay which was only a short trip.

### Poker Variance Calculator | Primedope

Ungar was known to be a large tipper to cabbies and casino employees, regardless of whether he **broke** winning. Mike Sexton once noted that "Stuey spent what most people make in a year ppayer cab fares. The fact he rarely drove could have possibly come from a time when Ungar purchased a brand new Mercedes sports car and drove it until the vehicle ran out of oil and broke **player.** Ungar brought it back to the dealership and was told by a mechanic that it had no oil and thus would not run.

Ungar replied, "Why the hell didn't you tell me you had to put oil in the car? Ungar's friends often said he "ate like a wild animal. He would often **went** restaurants ahead of time and place an order for himself and everyone in his party so it was ready aent the same time his table was when they got there. Ungar would race in tht the restaurant, shovel the food down as fast as he could, throw cash for the entire **that** plus a generous tip on the poker and be ready to leave, even if the rest of his party had just barely started on drinks or appetizers.

The same friends however also noted that Ungar, when he had money, was one of the most generous people they had ever met. He was known to always be willing to help out a friend. Ungar was once on a hot winning streak and sent his longtime sports betting friend Michael "Baseball Mike" Salem enough money to pay for several months of his mortgage.

Oct 17, · Todd Ivens raised in the cutoff and was three-bet to 30, by Greg Mueller. Chris Vitch then four-bet to , and action folded back to Mueller, who went all in for a bit less than , Sep 14, · Norm MacDonald, comedian, satirist, talk show host, and poker aficionado has died. He was According to multiple entertainment media sites, which received. Rick Salomon (born January 24, ) is an American poker player, who is best known for his sex tape with Paris casinocanli.co had other high-profile relationships with various female celebrities, including Elizabeth Daily, Shannen Doherty, and Pamela casinocanli.co a poker player, Salomon won $ million in the , $ million in the , and $ million in the World Series of Poker.Salem did not ask for the money and had only mentioned offhand to Ungar he was in the midst of a nasty losing streak. He responded that he was OK, but struggling a little financially. It's yours. Pay me back when you can. And if you don't pay me back, that's OK too. A man stopped him and asked for some money. Sexton and Ungar became friends when Sexton was suffering a losing streak and was nearly broke.

Ungar was playing in a high limit seven card stud game and had to use the restroom. Ungar told Sexton to "pick up a hand" play the next hand for him while he went. This is generally not allowed in card rooms today but for top pros like Ungar, rules were much plker lax back then.

Ungar returned from the pokrr in the middle of the hand, at which point he was to Sexton's surprise thrilled that his money was involved in such a giant pot. Ungar's attitude made Sexton more comfortable with playing the hand aggressively and he ended up winning a large amount.

### The 10 Best Poker Players of All Time (Earnings-Wise) - Upswing Poker

That night, Ungar took all his close friends out to a strip club and paid for the entire evening, which included numerous girls, Cristal champagne and a VIP booth. Personal hygiene was something that tended to be lost on Ungar. Sent rarely washed his own hair, opting instead to pay a professional stylist at The Dunes casino to wash it for him twice a week and cut it when necessary.

Ungar never had a bank account in his own name, preferring to keep his money in safe deposit boxes in hotels across Las Vegas. He dismissed the notion of a bank or checking account. According to her, Ungar believed that if you had a bank account and wrote a check, the check would be honored; not understanding that you need to take cash to the bank and deposit it to have the funds available to write a check first.

Ungar is regarded by many poker analysts and insiders as one of the greatest pure-talent players ever to play the game. Ungar also won the Main Event at the now-defunct Amarillo Slim 's Super Playyer of Poker inandwhen it was considered by the poker world the world's second most prestigious poker title.

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Ungar was portrayed by Michael Imperioli. Stu Ungar was inducted posthumously into the Poker Hall of Fame in It contained interviews with his wife and daughter and several other people who knew him. It also featured excerpts from tapes he recorded in the last year of his life for an autobiography that never appeared.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. American poker player. USA: Szymanski, Al. Poker Pages. Recent Poker. Hand of the Day. Poker Listing. Retrieved June 18, October 30, Retrieved November 12, Archived from the original on October 11, Poker News. Retrieved January 12, The Independent. Retrieved June 15, World Series of Poker — Main Event champions.

Nguyen Blumstein Cynn Ensan Salas. Note number in brackets represents the number of bracelets earned in that year.

Stuart Errol Ungar September 8, — November 22, was an American professional poker , blackjack , and gin rummy player, widely regarded to have been the greatest Texas hold 'em and gin player of all time. He is one of two people in poker history to have won the World Series of Poker Main Event three times. He is the only person to win Amarillo Slim 's Super Bowl of Poker three times, the world's second most prestigious poker title during its time.